India–China @75 Years:
- 75 years of diplomatic ties in 2025 — marks both a milestone and a moment of strategic challenge.
- Relationship has shifted from Asian solidarity to strategic rivalry & border tensions, but still offers economic interdependence & regional cooperation potential.
Key Themes
1. The ‘China Lens’ in India’s Foreign Policy
- China = most influential external factor for India’s strategic decisions.
- Impacts: Border policy, trade diversification, defence strategy, foreign alignments.
2. Border Realities & Military Posture
- 1962 war + 2020 Galwan clash = trust deficit & military standoff.
- 60,000 Indian troops permanently in Eastern Ladakh.
- LAC = tense, militarised, miscalculation-prone.
India’s China Policy: Four Pillars
- Military readiness
- Economic diversification
- Diplomatic engagement
- Narrative control
Motto: “Deter without provoking, trade without depending.”
Economic Paradox
- $100 billion trade deficit (2024–25).
- Dependency on Chinese imports (esp. electronics & pharma).
- Tech bans (e.g. apps, FDI restrictions) ≠ true decoupling.
- “Deterrence at the border, dependence in the market” paradox.
India’s Strategy: “Competitive Coexistence”
- Compete in:
- Defence, infrastructure, regional influence.
- Cooperate via:
- BRICS, SCO = platforms of mutual engagement.
- Quad = balancing with U.S., Japan, Australia for Indo-Pacific security.
Regional Contest & Diplomacy
- China’s growing influence in South Asia:
- Sri Lanka (Hambantota), Nepal (Pokhara), Maldives (loans).
- India’s response:
- Aid, defence ties, connectivity, first-responder role.
- Needs shift from reactive to proactive diplomacy.
Diplomatic Nuances
- Bangladesh leader’s Beijing remarks (on NE India) reflect China’s narrative push.
- India needs to:
- Close infra gaps, build trust with neighbours, control the strategic narrative.
The America Factor
- Trump’s return (2025): US-China rivalry intensifies.
- India must:
- Maintain strategic autonomy.
- Deepen U.S. ties without provoking China.
Modi’s March 2025 Podcast Remarks
- Invoked historical synergy, called for “healthy competition”.
- Seen as:
- Message to Beijing (open to dialogue),
- Signal to S. (independent thinking),
- Reassurance to domestic audience (strategic maturity).
Signs of Reapprochement (2025)
- Verification patrols resumed at LAC (Jan 2025).
- Talks on:
- Hydrological data-sharing, Kailash Yatra, resuming flights.
- Still: No illusions — trust remains low, risks persist.
Water Security Concerns
- China’s dam on Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) sparks fears:
- No water treaty, low transparency, ecological + strategic risks.
Forward Vision: Strategic, Not Sentimental
- India must:
- Think in decades, not just headlines.
- Move from reaction to strategy.
- Embrace “competitive coexistence” with guardrails to prevent escalation.
