In the recently released IMF World Economic Outlook April 2025, the global growth forecast has been marked downwards by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8 per cent for 2025 and by 0.3 percentage points to 3 per cent for 2026 compared to this year’s January edition.
About IMF (International Monetary Fund)
- Established: 1944, post-Great Depression era.
- Members: 190 countries.
- Purpose: Promote global monetary cooperation, financial stability, trade, and sustainable growth.
- Key Reports:
- World Economic Outlook (WEO)
- Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR)
World Economic Outlook (WEO)
- Published by: IMF (flagship report).
- Frequency: Biannually (April & October), with interim updates.
- Focus Areas:
- Global economic trends
- Forecasts for GDP growth
- Analysis of policy challenges and risks
Key Highlights – WEO April 2025
Top 10 Economies by GDP (2025)
| Rank | Country | GDP (USD Trillion) | GDP Growth (%) | Per Capita GDP (USD) |
| 1 | USA | 30.34 | 2.7 | 30,510 |
| 2 | China | 19.53 | 4.6 | 19,230 |
| 3 | Germany | 4.92 | 0.8 | 4,740 |
| 4 | India | 4.39 | 6.2 | 4,190 |
| 5 | Japan | 4.27 | 1.1 | 4,190 |
| 6 | UK | 3.73 | 1.6 | 3,840 |
| 7 | France | 3.28 | 0.8 | 3,210 |
| 8 | Italy | 2.46 | 0.7 | 2,420 |
| 9 | Canada | 2.33 | 2.0 | 2,230 |
| 10 | Brazil | 2.31 | 2.2 | 2,130 |
Rising Uncertainty
- Global uncertainty is the dominant concern.
- IMF’s World Trade Uncertainty Index is 7x higher than in Oct 2024.
Global Economic Growth Forecasts
- World GDP (real terms):
- 2025:8%
- 2026:0%
Country-Specific Insights
- Euro Area: Weak growth at 0.8% (2025) and 1.2% (2026).
- United States: Growth cut to 1.8% for 2025 (down by 90 bps); bond market no longer seen as “safe”.
- China: Growth downgraded to 4.0% (from 4.6% in Jan 2025).
- India:
- Still the fastest-growing major economy:
- 2025:2%
- 2026:3%
- Reasons for resilience: Strong macroeconomic fundamentals, rural demand, private consumption.
- Still the fastest-growing major economy:
Trade Tensions & Tariff War
- Tariffs have become the new disruptors post-COVID.
- On 2 April 2025, US imposed the largest tariff hike in modern history, triggering a tariff war.
- Global supply chains are once again under pressure.
Significance for India
- Continues to lead global growth despite global volatility.
- IMF projects India will surpass Germany and Japan by 2030 in GDP size if trends continue.
- Resilient domestic demand and reforms are central to sustained momentum.
Implications of the Report
- Policy Uncertainty in developed economies affecting global markets.
- Emerging Economies, especially India and Brazil, gaining relevance.
- Signals a shift in global economic power from traditional Western economies to Asia and Global South.
